Thanks for the thoughts everyone.
It is obvious to me now that smart contracts can’t hold the private key to a BTC address. Contracts can only manipulate Counterparty asset balances (including XCP).
So what we really need to make this work is a way to trustlessly peg an asset to BTC.
It seems that the federated peg approach might the most promising way to do this. I’m looking forward to seeing side chains progress. I’m hopeful we can implement a side chain that does what we need for Counterparty. I think counterparty smart contracts that can effectively utilize a trustless BTC proxy would be a wonderful thing for both Counterparty and bitcoin.